February 06, 2008

Super Tuesday Postmortem: Colorado Caucus Results

Update (1:30 pm)--Note to Sen. McCain-telling conservatives to "calm down" is no way to build bridges with GOPers like those in Colorado ready to bolt from the party or simply sit on their hands

Update (1:00 pm)--Eye-rolling "Dems are nonpartisan, Republicans are conservative" caucus analysis of the day:
"Obama's that creative-society, nonpartisan, new-advocate-for-change Democrat that we like here," said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli, pointing to former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, Sen. Ken Salazar and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

Mitt Romney's win over John McCain, on the other hand, showed that Republicans were backing conservative, core-party values over more moderate views.
Update (12:00 pm)--Ben DeGrow links to the "trust but verify" scenarios that will offer McCain perhaps his only chance at mending fences with conservatives; more observations of "barely organized chaos" from Roger Fraley; Dem blogger Wash Park Prophet sees Democrat enthusiasm as providing coattails for Mark Udall and other Dem candidates this fall

Update (7:00 am)--voter turnout percentage, based on voter registration for each party and the closed caucus rules-13.6% of Democrats caucused vs. 6.4% of Republicans

Update (3:30 am)--record turnout in Colorado-8x for Democrats (120,000 in 2008 vs. 15,000 in 2004) and 65,000 Republicans

Initial thoughts--despite his Super Tuesday success, here are the image problems in a nutshell John McCain will face in the coming months in his quest to court conservatives in the GOP base (via the awesome Michael Ramirez):



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Super Tuesday Colorado Caucus Results

**Update 2--Super Tuesday Postmortem: Colorado Caucus Results

**Update--welcome Michelle Malkin readers, scroll for Colorado results and plenty of background links below . . .

MSM coverage: 9NEWS--7NEWS--CBS4--Rocky Mountain News--Denver Post

Update (12:45 am)--Colorado election fundraising numbers for Dems, GOP

Update (11:45 pm)--The Drunkablog provides tonight's (only?) LOL caucus moment
Joshua Sharf--Denver GOP misses a chance to educate and engage Republicans with caucus disorganization

Update (10:45 pm)--Romney, Obama declared winners
Final look at the unofficial numbers:
Obama 66%-Clinton 33% (98% reporting)
Romney 60%-McCain 19%-Huckabee 13% (68% reporting)

Update (10:30 pm)--videos from around the state-Dem/GOP HQ, Bob Schaffer/Mark Udall

Update (10:15 pm)--Ben DeGrow and Steven Nielson report from their caucuses on turnout, votes

Update (10:00 pm)--complete county-by-county results for Colorado

Update (9:45 pm)--Romney looking to the Mountain West for help

Update (9:40 pm)--CNN:
D--Obama declared winner with 64% (45% reporting)
R--Romney leads McCain 54-22% (20% reporting), should be declared winner soon

Update (9:15 pm)--CNN:
Democrats--Obama 65%-Clinton 34% (29% reporting)
Republicans--Romney 49%, McCain 25%, Huckabee 18%, Paul 7% (8% reporting)

Update (8:45 pm)--CNN has a running tab of returns for Colorado
Colorado GOP is also updating numbers by county
Hot Air has state-by-state winners

Update (8:40 pm)--
First numbers from the parties are in
:
Early numbers from the Colorado Democratic Party showed Obama with a 2 to 1 margin over Sen. Hillary Clinton with less than 10 percent of precincts reporting.

Numbers from the Colorado Republican Party showed Romney had a 10 percent lead over Sen. John McCain and former Gov. Mike Huckabee with only a fraction of precincts reporting.
Update (7:30 pm)--precinct voted 5-1 Romney over McCain.

Candidate speeches were short but heated; Ron Paul supporters vociferous, attack Iraq War to much derision; elected delegate for precinct 409 to Denver County assembly; general mood subdued

9NEWS--overwhelming, overflow crowds at most Denver-area locations

Caucus update from Denver County GOP District 4 (6:42 pm)--
Arrived at Lake Middle School--home to both Republican and Democrat
caucuses. So far only Dem signs directing voters--GOP voter
suppression? (j/k)

Many, many more people (probably 4x at least 6 or 7x) than in 2006, and still 20
minutes to caucus kickoff.

Lots of Ron Paul supporters . . . stay tuned . . .



Even as results from the East coast and Midwest roll in, Coloradans are waiting to contribute their two cents in the Super Tuesday caucus.

Some thoughts going into tonight:
With other states having already completed their caucus/primaries, or with exit polling data available, how does an Obama victory in Georgia or an unexpected Huckabee win in West Virginia influence Colorado voters, who haven't even left their houses yet?

How does Colorado's Latino vote influence the Clinton/Obama battle?

And for those who are disaffected/disillusioned by the current GOP field, here's what the Colorado Democrats have in store for their caucus platforms.

An update on a story posted earlier
--looks like Denver Post and Rocky Mountain News journalists will be allowed to participate in their caucuses after all (and as a result of some legal questioning), but will be limited in their election coverage so as to maintain some semblance of journalistic "objectivity".

Note--Colorado's caucuses are non-binding:
At stake in Colorado are 43 Republican and 55 Democratic delegates selected through the caucuses. The caucuses are nonbinding and Colorado voters won't select the delegates until the major parties have their conventions in May.

However, Tuesday's straw polls in Colorado were considered crucial because the final delegates will be selected through that process and it gives political momentum to the winners.
Look for updates as the evening rolls on . . .


Complete coverage of Colorado's caucus:

Super Tuesday Colorado Caucus Results

Super Tuesday Predictions And Blog Roundup: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney

Colorado Caucus Open Thread; Update: Endorsing Mitt Romney

Colorado Caucus: Unaffiliated Vote Growing


Colorado Caucus: Colorado Conservative Bloggers Pick GOP Favorites For Super Tuesday

Colorado Caucus: Record Turnout Expected


Colorado Caucus: Denver Post, Rocky Mountain News Issue Caucus Policies For Journalists

Colorado Caucus: Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul Answer Your Questions


Mitt Romney Visits Colorado In Advance Of Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday Colorado Caucus Party Registration Numbers


Colorado Buried In Avalanche Of Political Visits: Obama, Hillary, Romney, And Even Bush

Colorado Caucus Gains Importance; **Update: Super Tuesday

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February 05, 2008

Super Tuesday Predictions And Blog Roundup: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney

Around the blogosphere:

Michelle Malkin has an extensive, excellent roundup.

The Anchoress is keeping her vote private, and has a roundup as well.

Election Projection is doing, well, projections for both parties, as well as another roundup.

Real Clear Politics has a clear chart of the GOP delegate count and extensive columns, polls, and coverage of Super Tuesday.

Jay is serving up some links at Stop the ACLU.

Hot Air predictions
.

Gateway Pundit is covering today's events at his blog and at Pajamas Media.

Previous coverage:

Super Tuesday Colorado Caucus Results

Super Tuesday Predictions And Blog Roundup: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney

Colorado Caucus Open Thread; Update: Endorsing Mitt Romney

Colorado Caucus: Unaffiliated Vote Growing


Colorado Caucus: Colorado Conservative Bloggers Pick GOP Favorites For Super Tuesday

Colorado Caucus: Record Turnout Expected


Colorado Caucus: Denver Post, Rocky Mountain News Issue Caucus Policies For Journalists

Colorado Caucus: Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul Answer Your Questions


Mitt Romney Visits Colorado In Advance Of Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday Colorado Caucus Party Registration Numbers


Colorado Buried In Avalanche Of Political Visits: Obama, Hillary, Romney, And Even Bush

Colorado Caucus Gains Importance; **Update: Super Tuesday

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Colorado Caucus Open Thread; Update: Endorsing Mitt Romney

Comments, predictions, links, and anything else caucus related--here's an open thread.

Ben DeGrow has a Super Tuesday post, and can't wait for some primary season resolution.

David Harsanyi sums up my sentiments succinctly:
Why do so many conservatives detest — and yes, "detest" is the most accurate word — John McCain?

Why are radio talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham and Hugh Hewitt abandoning their customary stance on Republican unity by endorsing or supporting Mitt Romney?

Why would the right-wing queen of provocation, Ann Coulter, claim that she would rather campaign for Hillary Clinton than the longtime Republican senator from Arizona?

Why, many talking heads marvel, are conservatives ambushing their only real shot at a general election victory in November?

Well, just maybe, to conservatives, the principle is worth more than the victory.
This explanation squares with my own motto, the one that appears at the top of this blog:
"Supporting party above principle does a disservice to both"
Before registering as a Republican for the 2004 primary election, I had been an "unaffiliated" voter--though certainly not in the "independent" or "moderate" or flip-flopping fence-sitter mode. I was a conservative--fiscally, socially, in foreign policy and in temperament. None of these positions were in the absolutist, ideologue sense--a healthy blend of small-l libertarianism influenced all of my positions, creating the need to balance my views on personal morality and public policy. As these were not always coterminous, a certain tension existed--not one that drew me toward the mushy middle, but one that made it difficult to pigeonhole me ideologically. I'm sure many of you have had the same feelings.

Generally, the problems of this country could not and should not be solved primarily or even substantially by the government. Nanny-state totalitarians masquerading as government do-gooders and demagogues spouting economic populism while excoriating the "evil" business sector--these were the main adversaries, and sometimes even found a home in the GOP. This says nothing of the anti-American, pro-socialist moonbats on the left, or the tinfoil-hat wearing, black helicopter spying, conspiracy theorists.

Government, however, does have a role (and this is why I'm not a big-L Libertarian) in playing the third-party arbiter, law enforcement, and foreign policy roles. One of the failures in this area has been the inability and lack of will regarding enforcing immigration laws. Any regular reader here knows my position on illegal immigration.

McCain-Feingold and McCain-Kennedy violate both of these positions. I'm supposed to "take one for the party" and simply prostrate myself before the failure-turned-juggernaut John McCain campaign? His "bipartisanship" and "maverick" designations generally mean kicking any principled conservative position to the curb, all the while scolding those who dare to disagree.

None of these problems with McCain's policy positions denigrates his service in our military. A casual glance at this blog will disabuse anyone of the notion that I have nothing but respect for McCain on this aspect, and would certainly find him a strong defender of this nation in the foreign policy arena. But one's military service does not mean a default vote for a candidate, much as one's gender or race should not bring an automatic vote either.

Mike Huckabee presents a similar problem. His social conservatism is admirable, but tends toward the evangelical (I'm Catholic, there is some disconnect there). Huck's main shortcomings, in my view, stem from his willingness to view the government as the source of the correctives for any issue that comes before him. A strong dose of economic populism also does much to dissuade.

Ron Paul. Good on domestic policy, atrocious on foreign policy. While he himself may not be a nut, some of his followers are, and tend to be disaffected cranks and conspiracy moonbats. That he has not distanced himself or his campaign from their antics or their contributions doesn't speak well to him as a candidate.

Mitt Romney isn't perfect. He has been accused of "flip-flopping" on any number of core issues that conservatives find important. But at this point, and given the candidate pool that the GOP has been left with, Romney is the only candidate whose professed positions come closer to my own, without the accompanying ideological (Huckabee) or historical (McCain) baggage. We know how McCain would treat conservatives, and I'd rather not be roadkill for "maverick" John McCain.

That being said, I can't see myself pulling the lever for a Democrat or any third party option come November should McCain earn the nomination. An extremely reluctant vote for a Republican will (hopefully) help ensure that either Democrat--and the variance between positions is quite clear to all those who have been paying attention--will not be successful. It will also increase the likelihood that potential Supreme Court nominees--to my mind the most important spoils of victory as evidenced by the 2004 results--will remain at best strict constructionists and at worst, moderates. A Democrat victory will only bring moonbattery and leftist "living document" disaster to the highest court in the land.

However, my enthusiasm remains undaunted for state and local GOP candidates, especially for former Representative Bob Schaffer in Colorado's Senate race. We must not forget down-ticket ramifications and remain on the sidelines by sitting on our hands and refusing to vote. Just because we don't like the candidate--no candidate is perfect or even ideal--doesn't mean we should eschew our responsibility--our right--to vote. Don't like McCain? Great! Now get out there and pour your time and money into the other races at the state and local level, and work to prevent a Democrat-dominated Congressional delegation and Colorado legislature move no further to the left. We need to begin chipping away at their advantages now, and begin identifying prospects for challenging them in 2010. Disdain for McCain is no excuse for failing to support the GOP and conservative principles elsewhere.

Final point. The primary season is the time to air differences, argue positions, and strengthen resolve. Any criticism of McCain now will remain even if he ends up the GOP nominee. But I'd rather work to sway McCain back to conservatism (forcing the death of the McCain-Kennedy amnesty bill) than have to fight a Democrat President and likely House and Senate tooth-and-nail to stop the country from going into a tailspin.

Soapbox/endorsement off.

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Colorado Caucus: Colorado Conservative Bloggers Pick GOP Favorites For Super Tuesday

Poring over my fellow Colorado conservatives' blogs these past few weeks, I pulled together a rough list of their picks for the GOP nomination in no particular order (if you would like to add your endorsement to this list, leave a comment and link below):

The Daily Blogster--"Go Mitt!"

Clay Calhoun--"If the GWOT is the #1 issue, and I believe it is, then McCain is who I want leading the charge"

The New Conservative--Huckabee or McCain, anyone but that sleazy Romney

Best Destiny--"I will be enthusiastically caucusing for Mitt Romney on Tuesday night"

Ben DeGrow--Mitt for President

ThinkingRight--"Mitt Romney is the only clear conservative candidate"

The Drum and Cannon--"It is time for conservative Republicans to bury our differences and let our voices be heard, loud and clear. It is time to come together and support Mitt Romney for President of the United States"

Rossputin--"If John McCain is the GOP nominee, I'll vote Libertarian"

ClearCommentary--"There's much about McCain we don't like, but if he's our fate, let's sharpen him to a razor's edge and prepare for November"

The Colorado Index--(no official endorsement) "The conservatives who are always in search of the perfect conservative candidate with the threat that they will sit on their hands if he doesn't materialize have handed us Ken Salazar and Bill Ritter"

FWIW, here's how the SP GOP poll turned out:

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January 29, 2008

Colorado Caucus Gains Importance; **Update: Super Tuesday

**Updated and bumped to the top through Super Tuesday--scroll for caucus info**

<---Please take a moment to vote in SP's GOP poll, located to the left in the sidebar. Democrat caucus info/Republican caucus info

9NEWS has a short primer on caucus procedures for Democrats and Republicans


With the Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday Caucus/Primary Electionpalooza (or whatever the MSM is calling it) only 26 days away (thanks Ben for the reminder!), Colorado's relatively obscure caucus should garner not only record turnout with both parties lacking a clear frontrunner, but also increased attention from the candidates:
Colorado is bracing for possible record turnouts in the Feb. 5 presidential caucuses, as state voters get swept up in the country's election fever.

Massive turnouts at the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary indicate that voters want to play a pivotal role in the country's most open presidential seat in more than 50 years. And Colorado voters — on both sides of the aisle — are no different.
. . .
GOP and Democratic Party officials say they are expecting much higher participation at the caucuses than they have had in years. State GOP head Dick Wadhams said the intensity of the race was certain to bring out new attendees.

State Democrats have told their county precincts "to prepare for record turnout," said spokesman Matt Sugar, who noted that his party is involved in numerous caucus trainings.
. . .
Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, Colorado does not have so-called open caucuses. Only those who registered as a Democrat or Republican by the first week in December can attend the caucuses. Unaffiliateds — the state's second-largest registered group — cannot show up and vote.

The state currently boasts just over 1 million Republicans, 994,575 unaffiliateds and 875,650 Democrats. Unaffiliateds have increased by about 50,000 since March, while Democrats went up about 25,000 and Republicans 12,000.

Colorado is one of more than 20 states taking part in what's known as Super Tuesday. The front-loaded nomination schedule has accelerated the process, which may potentially result in both parties producing a nominee by dawn on Feb. 6.

The country would then have a two-candidate race for nine months — a historical first.
Having a closed caucus will prevent unaffiliateds from skewing either party's selection--giving a clearer picture of what rank-and-file Colorado Democrats and Republicans view as their ideal candidate, while leaving pollsters and bloggers to speculate on just how the 2nd largest voting bloc in Colorado will break come November.

Ben DeGrow has a good roundup of Colorado caucus information
, including Jefferson and Douglas County GOP caucus gathering information and links. More from Colorado GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams.

Denver County GOP caucuses are arranged geographically, centered in the 9 State House districts that comprise the county:


District 1 - Kennedy High School
District 2 - Colorado Automobile Dealers Association offices
District 3 - Harvard Gulch Recreation Center, 550 East Iliff (Logan & Iliff)
District 4 - Lake Middle School
District 5 - Tivoli Auditorium, Auraria Campus
District 6 - Location 1: Windsor Gardens, 595 S. Clinton Street (Clinton & Alameda)
Location 2: Central Christian Church, 3690 Cherry Creek Drive South (Garfield & Cherry Creek Drive South)
District 7 - location TBD
District 8 - Park Hill Methodist Church, 5209 Montview Boulevard
District 9 - Hamilton Middle School, 8600 Dartmouth
DemNotes captures the excitement felt on the other side. Not every Democrat, however, knows which lever they will pull in the upcoming election:
Cory Madden, a student at the University of Denver, said part of his class is engaged in a youth voting project to get people involved in the presidential race.

He hasn't registered yet but plans to as a Democrat. However, he doesn't know which Democrat will get his vote.

"[Dude--ed.] I'm just not getting a huge political vibe yet," said Madden, 19, who is originally from Ohio.

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January 07, 2008

Election '08--Colorado's Bloggers Analyze Iowa, Critique The Debates, And Back Their Favorite GOP Candidates

For the first week of 2008, the conservative blogosphere in Colorado has issued prognostications, offered analysis, and revealed who they think the frontrunners are (or should be). A few have even endorsed their primary candidate, or more importantly, detailed who they won't be voting for should that candidate receive the GOP nomination.

Michael at Best Destiny insightfully details more ground that ALL of the GOP candidates should be steadfast in not ceding to the Democrats this election cycle.

Mr. Bob at the Daily Blogster explains
his (well-reasoned, IMO) to back Mitt Romney, and also his distaste for the over-the-top antics of radio personality Hugh Hewitt.

Jim at ThinkingRight also believes that Romney is the best of the leading candidates, and has analysis as well.

Meanwhile, Ben DeGrow remains a FredHead for as long as he sticks in the race.

Clay Calhoun, after an extended blog hiatus, offers his rundown of the marathon two-party debate Saturday evening--he likes Fred and Huck, can't stand Romney or Giuliani, and thinks McCain will get the GOP nod.

Phil Mella at ClearCommentary takes Barack Obama's foreign policy philosophy to task--would we be safe (from external threats/attacks) with Obama in the White House?

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December 17, 2007

Thoughts On The Primary--Fred! Not Huckabee

**Update 2--another Fred! endorsement

**Update--Iowa Rep. Steve King endorses Fred Thompson, in clear and forceful terms (via Michelle Malkin)
Haven't had too much time finishing up this semester's work to keep up with the GOP primary--and since the first votes are literally just weeks away, the importance cannot be understated.

Ben at Mount Virtus has done a little looking, and his post on Fred Thompson (and his primary endorsement of Fred!) are certainly echoed here.

More primary thoughts over the next few weeks.

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