PoliticsWest Webcast: GOP Woes

Missed this last week--a good general conversation on the GOP electoral woes, changes in the electorate, voter trends, libertarians vs. social conservatives, etc.:



Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams, Eric Sondermann, an independent political analyst and founder of Denver's SE2 consulting firm, David Harsanyi, a Denver Post columnist and author of the recent book "Nanny State," and Jessica Peck Corry, a public policy analyst for the Independence Institute and a blogger for PoliticsWest--moderated by the Denver Post's Chuck Plunkett.

Schaffer V Udall--Monday Morning Edition 051908

From now until the election, in addition to links provided throughout the week, SP is promoting the Schaffer v Udall blog's latest posts:

Inconvenient Facts for Mark Udall and Big Blue Lie Machine's Assault on Bob Schaffer

Why is Mark Udall Hiding from Unscripted Debates?

Making Mountains out of Molehills

Mark Udall Now Running from "Boulder Liberal" Tag and Debates? A Connection?

Stay tuned to SvU for the most up-to-date coverage and analysis of the U.S. Senate matchup between Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall, updates on Colorado's voting population and party affiliation, and the impact of the Democratic National Convention on Colorado's most significant state-wide race.

Schaffer V Udall--Monday Morning Edition 051208

From now until the election, in addition to links provided throughout the week, SP is promoting the Schaffer v Udall blog's latest posts:

Udall: We're Starting To See A Pattern of "Courage" Emerging

Debate Format "Unacceptable" But Udall Indicates Further Discussion Warranted

What Political Favor is Mark Udall Holding Out for from Hillary Clinton?

Stay tuned to SvU for the most up-to-date coverage and analysis of the U.S. Senate matchup between Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall, updates on Colorado's voting population and party affiliation, and the impact of the Democratic National Convention on Colorado's most significant state-wide race.

Colorado Voter Registration And Party Affiliation--April Update

Cross-posted from Schaffer v Udall

The latest numbers from the Secretary of State's office--

Republicans--1017738
Democrats--900823
Unaffiliated--1013548
Total--2932109

SvU's voter affiliation tracker has been updated:

Previous coverage here.

In Schaffer v Udall Battle, Coloradans Offered Clear Choice

"The two likely candidates in this year's U.S. Senate contest, Rep. Mark Udall, a Democrat, and former Rep. Bob Schaffer, a Republican, served side-by-side in Congress from 1999 through 2002. Over those four years, they cast 2,036 votes together, often on symbolic or non-controversial matters. And yet they still managed to disagree more than half the time - 1,078 times, to be precise"--Rocky Mountain News

As the Rocky Mountain News points out, Senate candidates Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall are as different as night and day:

If you think Rep. Mark Udall, a Democrat, and former Rep. Bob Schaffer, a Republican, disagree on 1,000 different things, that's close.

From 1999 through 2002, when they worked across the aisle from one another in the U.S. House of Representatives, they cast opposite votes a whopping 1,078 times.

That long and detailed record makes the 2008 contest a rarity in state politics. Not since 1986, when Democrat Tim Wirth faced Republican Ken Kramer, have two one-time House colleagues gone head-to-head in a U.S. Senate race.

"Talk about a paper trail. This is a paper trail that leads into the Rockies for this Senate race," said Norman Provizer, a political science professor at Metropolitan State College in Denver. "They represent two very differing views on all kinds of issues. If you look at it from an issue perspective, they aren't Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum."

The Rocky Mountain News analyzed all 2,036 congressional votes, big and small, that Schaffer and Udall cast during their four years together in the House. It's more than enough to keep the ad-makers on both sides busy in the run-up to November.

Fair use prevents a lengthier quotation (the article is quite long and extensively researched), but here are a few highlights:

Schaffer's stance is first, Udall's second

Military issues

* IRAQ WAR: Resolution authorizing use of force against Iraq. (Oct. 10, 2002) YES NO

* SPENDING: An amendment that would have imposed a 1 percent, across-the-board cut on military programs. (May 18, 2000) NO YES

* RECRUITING: Amendment to education spending bill that would have prohibited funds from being used to block military recruiting at secondary schools. (June 13, 2000) YES NO

Homeland security

* ANTI-TERRORISM LAW: The anti-terrorism law, the Patriot Act, first enacted in the weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. (Oct. 12, and Oct. 24, 2001)YES NO

* ARMING PILOTS: Legislation to allow airline pilots to carry guns in the cockpit as a defense against terrorism. (July 10, 2002)YES NO

Education

* SCHOOL CHOICE: Amendment to the proposed "No Child Left Behind Act" that would have allowed students from low-performing schools, or crime victims from "unsafe schools," to choose to attend private schools using public funds. (May 23, 2001)YES NO

Taxes

* BUSH TAX CUTS: Approval of White House-backed tax cuts of the "Economic Growth and Tax Relief Act of 2001." (March 8, 2001)YES NO

* TAX LIMITS: A proposed constitutional amendment requiring two-thirds majority votes to approve new tax increases. (June 12, 2002)YES NO

Takeaways?

This contest pits candidates from rival parties that present a clear difference in viewpoints. The common charge that most candidates in any election are "basically the same" can simply not be applied in this case.

Schaffer-Republican-Conservative

Udall-Democrat-Liberal

The move to the "middle" where both sides believe the election will be won features an unaffiliated voting bloc poised to become the largest pool of registered voters in Colorado. Schaffer acknowledges that the state's tilt has been blue since 2004; Udall realizes that he is not the "moderate" that either Sen. Ken Salazar or Gov. Bill Ritter were (or purported to be) when they ran statewide.

The most recent poll shows both candidates within the margin of error (Udall leads 46-43), a clear toss-up, in spite of the MSM's continued meme that the seat is really Udall's to lose.

The votes revealed (or re-revealed, in some cases, for those political junkies who have been following this blog) will be the subject of campaign fodder, political ads, and 527 mudslinging for the next 7 months.

The only thing that can be agreed on--the stature and importance of this race. Republicans see the seat as an opportunity to roll back further losses due to retirement and a generally unfavorable political climate that has persisted since 2006. Democrats envision not only a pick-up, but an advance toward the potential 60 vote filibuster-proof supermajority.

Exit question: with Republicans settled on Sen. John McCain as their nominee, and the Democrats witnessing a fierce race rage on between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama, which candidate stands to benefit from their respective party's nominee? Who is helped more, or flipping that proposition, who is hurt the least?

**Update:
Ryan Sager is rather pessimistic about the GOP's chances in the "interior West" unless Sen. Hillary Clinton is the nominee, but Daniel Larison has a different explanation for the region's recent trend to blue, and asks--is it really a recent development, and can short term trends be extrapolated into long term outcomes?

Cross posted from Schaffer v Udall

Colorado Voter Registration And Party Affiliation--March Update

From the Sec. of State's office, these updated figures for March 2008 of Colorado's voter registration numbers and party affiliation:

Democrats--893,472
Unaffiliateds--1,008,675
Republicans--1,015,993

Since February 2008:
Democrats +7,849
Unaffiliteds +5,672
Republicans +2,527

The trend since January 2004:



Takeaways--the rapid trend for the state's unaffiliated ranks continues, as Republican recovery rate lags behind that of both unaffiliateds and Democrats since early 2007.

It will also be important to watch the numbers heading into the summer, and especially the final two reports--September and October--following the Democratic National Convention. Should Recreate '68 and its allies create the disruption and mayhem they are so eager to achieve, it may not matter if unaffiliateds have overtaken Republicans as the largest voting bloc in Colorado. Voter backlash against the Democrats could be considerable statewide, if not nationally, especially if the Democrats add insult to injury by having a heated, brokered convention.

Stay tuned.

Colorado Voter Registration--February Update

**Update--from my new post over at Schaffer v Udall: what the new numbers and a mediocre showing by Democrat Senate candidate Mark Udall in his party's preference poll on Super Tuesday mean for Colorado's much-hyped Senate race

---

Following the record turnout on Super Tuesday (complete recap here), there has been an increase in attention from the MSM to the ascent of the unaffiliated/independent bloc in Colorado, a stable Democrat segment, and the "demise" of the GOP.

Last month's voter registration analysis, ahead of the Colorado caucus, demonstrated the rise in unaffiliated voters. New numbers of Colorado voter registration and affiliation have been released by the Secretary of State. Here is a comparison of voter statistics for February 2004, 2006, and 2008--as well as two handy graphs illustrating each party's registration since January 2004, as well as the overall total for the three main voting blocs in absolute terms:

02/04
R-1044195--37.1%
D-855542--30.4%
U-911510--32.4%
T-2811247

02/06
R-1044843--36.2%
D-871689--30.2%
U-969915--33.6%
T-2886447

02/08
R-1013466--34.92%
D-885623--30.52%
U-1003003--34.56%
T-2902092

Colorado voter registration trends from 01/2004 to 02/2008 (click to enlarge):


Total Colorado registered voters (Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliateds only, click to enlarge):

Colorado Caucus: Unaffiliated Vote Growing

A few days ago I posted on the numbers of people who belong to the Republican and Democrat parties, and noted the large increase in the number of unaffiliated voters in Colorado, both newly registered voters who have yet to declare affiliations, and previously affiliated voters who have disenrolled due to enchantment with their party (or both, for that matter):



There are 2,890,852 voters in Colorado as of January 25, 2008:

1,011,152 Republicans--35.0%
880,761 Democrats--30.5%
998,939 Unaffiliated--34.6%

Yesterday, Colorado Public Radio featured some "unaffiliated" voters eager to gain some insight into their reasoning for remaining unaffiliated, or for leaving their current party (part 1). CPR then spoke to Colorado Republican Chairman Dick Wadhams and Democrat political consultant Mike Stratton on the challenges of campaigning for unaffiliated votes (part 2) in a state that has always featured a rather large "unaffiliated" bloc and that has also elected both Republicans and Democrats--in other words, a consistently "purple" state.

Given current trends, it is entirely conceivable that unaffiliated voters could outnumber members of both parties this year, especially if a great number of Republicans are disappointed in the eventual GOP Presidential nominee, and if current interest in the 2008 election encourages even more new voters who similarly disavow a partisan affiliation.