September 07, 2007

Bring On The Schaffer-Udall Polls

ColoradoPols is touting a new poll showing Rep. Mark Udall leading former Rep. Bob Schaffer 45-40% as evidence of Schaffer's weak campaign and signs of Udall's ultimate victory.

At this point, more than a year out, the poll reveals nothing more than a race that is a toss-up, as the margin of error of 4% makes the poll a statistical tie, and revealing of nothing more than an electorate that has yet to catch on with either candidate very strongly. Given that both candidates have never held state-wide office, that media darling Udall has been all but anointed as the next Senator because of fundraising, or that Schaffer has been thought to have stumbled out of the gate, a 1% difference isn't all that strong for Udall.

These results match the more probable "toss-up" scenario for the Schaffer/Udall race, rather than the oft-repeated line that the seat is Udall's to lose. ColoradoPols said that these numbers can and will change (noting the movement in the Beauprez/Ritter gubernatorial race), but that Schaffer is in a poor position not starting off the race at least even.

However, with Democrats and most of the media pounding the "Colorado is turning blue" meme and that the GOP is all but toast in the '08 election cycle, the fact that Udall isn't leading by double-digits should provide a source of some doubt for the Dems. This poll also certainly can't account for the possible party nominee for President and the potential coattails (or anti-coattails) effect that might play a part in determining turnout and final vote margin.

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