November 27, 2006

Predicting The Unpredictable: Errors In Forecasting Hurricanes

From Tampa Bay, casting doubts on Al Gore's inconvenient truths:
It was not the hurricane season we expected, thank you.

With cataclysmic predictions that hurricanes would swarm from the tropics like termites, no one thought 2006 would be the most tranquil season in a decade.

. . .

As they say about the stock market: Past results are no indication of future performance.

This year's uneventful season provides no assurance that next year will be as calm.
Which makes the likelihood of the certainty of "global warming" or "climate change" as certain as the people who place bets on a roulette table based on the display indicating the last 20 numbers or so--just because red has come up 12 times in a row does not mean that black is "due". Likewise, forecasting the hurricane season usually relies on models that offer no better than a predicted range. Sometimes they hit right on, sometimes the fail badly, like the hurricane predictions of 2006.


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