Ritter Ahead In July--Just Barely

By 7 points, give or take 4 (the margin of error).

Not a surprise really, given Ritter's generally good image and Beauprez's protracted almost-primary with Holtzman. It is July, the GOP has held the governorship for 8 years, state GOP members are all over the place on candidates (Beauprez vs. Holtzman) and issues (anti-illegal immigration vs. pro-business).

But it is only July. A stronger showing from the Beauprez campaign over the next few months would eliminate fears of a post-primary swoon, and a national uptick in GOP popularity, particularly with Bush's poll numbers and an increasing chance that the party won't lose Congress will likely instill more confidence in the rank-and-file GOP voters. The swing/moderate/independent/undecided vote is still out to lunch as the poll indicates. Particularly crucial will be balancing out the percentages of women voters, where a key independent/moderate/undecided constituency resides.